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Republicans have entered 2022 in a bullish mood. The conventional wisdom is that they will retake the House, and that they have a good chance of retaking the Senate as well, despite an unfavorable map.

Certainly President Joe Biden appears to be doing his best to help them, hitting a new record low approval rating of 33% in the Democrat-friendly Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday.

But Republicans aren’t doing too much yet to help themselves, and they risk wasting a golden opportunity.

First, the House. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has governed as if she had been given a sweeping left-wing mandate rather than a razor-thin majority, the result of unexpected Democratic losses in 2020. Her caucus, sensing doom, has apparently started to panic: as of this week, 26 incumbent Democrats had announced their retirements.

Given that the president’s party typically loses 27 seats, on average, in the House during midterm elections, Republicans are already feeling confident.

Moreover, the 2020 Census seemed to bode well for Republicans, as liberal states lost congressional seats and conservative states gained seats. Initially, one analyst predicted a gain of up to seven seats for Republicans from redistricting alone, based on the fact that Republicans already controlled so many state legislatures and even managed to increase their control in 2020.

But after the redistricting was done, Democrats actually did better than Republicans. That was partly because Democrat-run states like Illinois abandoned their plans for non-partisan, “independent” redistricting commissions, and simply used their power to gerrymander Republicans out of seats.

It was also because in states like California, the Democrats know how to game the “independent” commissions, and the new district map makes five Republican-held districts — out of eleven — more vulnerable in 2022 than they were until now.

Nationwide, Democrats may have gained up to nine seats from redistricting alone.

Now to the Senate. According to the RealClearPolitics poll averages, there are 42 seats held by each party that are either safe or not on the ballot in 2022. That leaves 14 competitive races, seven of which are considered “toss-ups.”

These include the seats held by Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ); Raphael Warnock (D-GA); Maggie Hassan (D-NH); Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV); and Ron Johnson (R-WI). Two Republican-held seats — one in Pennsylvania, the other in North Carolina — are open.

Republicans must win at least four of these seven toss-up races to have a chance to take the Senate, which is currently deadlocked at 50 seats each, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie breaking vote.

Unfortunately, many of these races look difficult for Republicans to win. New Hampshire is looking good enough for Democrats that Republican Governor Chris Sununu decided not to run. In addition, Republicans never seem to land a win in Nevada, despite perennial high hopes.

Ron Johnson is probably going to win in Wisconsin, though Joe Biden won there in 2020, which should make it a tough race. Arizona is a possible opportunity, as is Georgia, but Republican voters could be discouraged by former President Donald Trump’s persistent claims of fraud.

Democrats usually fall short in North Carolina, but Pennsylvania is doubtful, and the GOP field there is muddled after the departure of frontrunner Sean Parnell.

In sum, there is no easy path to a Senate majority.

Overall, in early December, some polls had Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot by 10 points. But that margin is gone– not because Democrats are becoming more popular, but because Republicans are becoming less so.

The party seems absorbed in political sideshows, not the bread-and-butter issues that appealed to suburban voters — especially women — in the off-year election in November.

Unless the GOP can pull itself together, it may remain in the minority.

Then there is the question of 2024. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been vocal in his view that the Republican nomination is Trump’s to lose. And every day that Biden breaks something that Trump had largely fixed — like the border, or the Middle East, or the economy — Trump’s prospects look better.

But there is no doubt that some of the voters who crossed over to the GOP in 2021 would have serious qualms about voting for Trump. Many people are simply tired of the chaos in public life.

There are certainly other contenders in the GOP field, some of whom would push for Trump-like policies. But it is unclear whether any of them would risk alienating the Trump base — which is highly energized, even if it is still a minority of the party — by challenging him.

Right now, Democrats’ focus on Trump seems unlikely to help them keep control of Congress. But it may be a good strategy once the midterms are out of the way. If Trump wants to win, he needs to move beyond 2020.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the recent e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. His recent book, RED NOVEMBER, tells the story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary from a conservative perspective. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.

News Source: breitbart.com

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Cable News Ratings, Monday January 24: 3.3 Million More People Watch Jesse Watters Debut Than CNNs Democracy in Peril Special

Fox News’ new 7 p.m. show, Jesse Watters Primetime, debuted big on Monday with 3.8 million total average viewers and 537,000 in the key 25-54 age demographic. That enough to land the new program, hosted by (you guessed it) Jesse Watters, second place in the ratings, just behind Fox’s top-rated The Five.

Watters’ debut was a boon for the network as it doubled the viewership versus the same day last year and led Fox’s prime time coverage.

The debut not only crushed its time slot competition, CNN’s Erin Burnett, who came in shy of 700,000 total viewers, and MSNBC’s Joy Reid, who raked in 1.2 million viewers, but it even beat ABC’s The Bachelor in terms of total viewers.

Watters also beat Tucker Carlson in total viewers, though Carlson won the demo.

CNN’s prime time 9 p.m. special Democracy in Peril, which is anchored this week by Jim Acosta, pulled in just 511,000 total average viewers on Monday night — a full 3.3 million fewer viewers than Watters.

Here is a full breakdown of Monday’s cable news ratings by show:

Total Viewers (thousands)

ET FNC CNN MSNBC NEWSMAX NEWSNATION
6a FOX AND FRIENDS:
951
NEW DAY:
271
MORNING JOE:
767
DIAMOND AND SILK CRYSTAL:
12
ELEMENTARY:
36
7a FOX AND FRIENDS:
1372
NEW DAY:
350
WAKE UP AMERICA:
71
MORNING IN AMERICA:
15
8a FOX AND FRIENDS:
1674
NEW DAY:
422
9a AMERICAS NEWSROOM:
1729
CNN NEWSROOM:
528
STEPHANIE RUHLE REPORTS:
657
NATIONAL REPORT:
155
10a AMERICAS NEWSROOM:
1698
CNN NEWSROOM:
594
JOSE DIAZ-BALART REPORTS:
548
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
76
11a FAULKNER FOCUS, THE:
1696
AT THIS HOUR:
550
CRAIG MELVIN REPORTS:
470
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
105
12p OUTNUMBERED:
1929
INSIDE POLITICS:
645
ANDREA MITCHELL REPORTS:
629
JOHN BACHMAN NOW:
171
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
182
1p AMERICA REPORTS:
1717
CNN NEWSROOM:
614
MTP DAILY:
601
BLUE BLOODS:
173
2p AMERICA REPORTS:
1695
CNN NEWSROOM:
662
KATY TUR REPORTS:
622
AMERICAN AGENDA:
212
BLUE BLOODS:
248
3p STORY, THE:
1669
CNN NEWSROOM:
688
HALLIE JACKSON REPORTS:
674
BLUE BLOODS:
341
4p YOUR WORLD W/NEIL CAVUTO:
1724
LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER:
735
DEADLINE:WHITE HOUSE:
1240
ERIC BOLLING THE BALANCE:
273
BLUE BLOODS:
448
5p FIVE, THE:
3862
LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER:
667
CHRIS SALCEDO SHOW, THE:
249
NEWSNATION: RUSH HOUR:
182
6p SPECIAL RPT W/BRET BAIER:
3090
SITUATION ROOM:
614
BEAT W/ARI MELBER:
1249
SPICER & CO:
283
DONLON REPORT, THE:
92
7p JESSE WATTERS PRIMETIME:
3803
ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT:
697
REIDOUT:
1205
GREG KELLY REPORTS:
343
ON BALANCE W/ VITTERT:
61
8p TUCKER CARLSON TONIGHT:
3774
ANDERSON COOPER 360:
712
ALL IN W/ CHRIS HAYES:
1382
STINCHFIELD:
233
DAN ABRAMS LIVE:
76
9p HANNITY:
2967
DEMOCRACY IN PERIL:
511
RACHEL MADDOW SHOW:
2380
CORTES & PELLEGRINO:
113
NEWSNATION PRIME:
82
10p INGRAHAM ANGLE, THE:
2230
DON LEMON TONIGHT:
516
LAST WORD W/ L. ODONNELL:
1442
ROB SCHMITT TONIGHT:
166
BANFIELD:
62
11p GUTFELD!:
2004
DON LEMON TONIGHT:
348
11TH HOUR:
789
GREG KELLY REPORTS:
126
ON BALANCE W/ VITTERT:
36

25-54 Demo (thousands)

ET FNC CNN MSNBC NEWSMAX NEWSNATION
6a FOX AND FRIENDS:
201
NEW DAY:
30
MORNING JOE:
81
DIAMOND AND SILK CRYSTAL:
2
ELEMENTARY:
1
7a FOX AND FRIENDS:
273
NEW DAY:
41
WAKE UP AMERICA:
7
MORNING IN AMERICA:
3
8a FOX AND FRIENDS:
260
NEW DAY:
45
9a AMERICAS NEWSROOM:
271
CNN NEWSROOM:
90
STEPHANIE RUHLE REPORTS:
75
NATIONAL REPORT:
22
10a AMERICAS NEWSROOM:
263
CNN NEWSROOM:
93
JOSE DIAZ-BALART REPORTS:
54
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
5
11a FAULKNER FOCUS, THE:
261
AT THIS HOUR:
91
CRAIG MELVIN REPORTS:
46
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
24
12p OUTNUMBERED:
303
INSIDE POLITICS:
126
ANDREA MITCHELL REPORTS:
70
JOHN BACHMAN NOW:
40
IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
24
1p AMERICA REPORTS:
269
CNN NEWSROOM:
110
MTP DAILY:
72
BLUE BLOODS:
27
2p AMERICA REPORTS:
276
CNN NEWSROOM:
135
KATY TUR REPORTS:
59
AMERICAN AGENDA:
55
BLUE BLOODS:
44
3p STORY, THE:
280
CNN NEWSROOM:
154
HALLIE JACKSON REPORTS:
79
BLUE BLOODS:
62
4p YOUR WORLD W/NEIL CAVUTO:
275
LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER:
149
DEADLINE:WHITE HOUSE:
114
ERIC BOLLING THE BALANCE:
49
BLUE BLOODS:
72
5p FIVE, THE:
588
LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER:
138
CHRIS SALCEDO SHOW, THE:
47
NEWSNATION: RUSH HOUR:
21
6p SPECIAL RPT W/BRET BAIER:
466
SITUATION ROOM:
119
BEAT W/ARI MELBER:
136
SPICER & CO:
41
DONLON REPORT, THE:
7
7p JESSE WATTERS PRIMETIME:
537
ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT:
131
REIDOUT:
165
GREG KELLY REPORTS:
57
ON BALANCE W/ VITTERT:
6
8p TUCKER CARLSON TONIGHT:
636
ANDERSON COOPER 360:
127
ALL IN W/ CHRIS HAYES:
188
STINCHFIELD:
49
DAN ABRAMS LIVE:
12
9p HANNITY:
430
DEMOCRACY IN PERIL:
103
RACHEL MADDOW SHOW:
324
CORTES & PELLEGRINO:
20
NEWSNATION PRIME:
23
10p INGRAHAM ANGLE, THE:
353
DON LEMON TONIGHT:
133
LAST WORD W/ L. ODONNELL:
160
ROB SCHMITT TONIGHT:
38
BANFIELD:
5
11p GUTFELD!:
379
DON LEMON TONIGHT:
67
11TH HOUR:
113
GREG KELLY REPORTS:
27
ON BALANCE W/ VITTERT:
5

As for the three cable news networks overall, here are the total day averages in total viewers and the 25-54 category.

Total viewers:

CNN: 511,000

Fox: 1.99 million

MSNBC: 895,000

25-54 Demo:

CNN: 96,000

Fox News: 327,000

MSNBC: 104,000

Here are the prime time averages — encompassing shows which air from 8-11 p.m. — in total viewers and the 25-54 demo.

Total viewers:

CNN: 579,000

Fox News: 2.99 million

MSNBC: 1.73 million

25-54 Demo:

CNN: 121,000

Fox News: 473,000

MSNBC: 224,000

For more ratings information and analysis go to ShowBuzz Daily.

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